Probability theory

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“The odds against there being a bomb on a plane are a million to one, and against two bombs a million times a million to one. Next time you fly, cut the odds and take a bomb.”
Die with the same sides
Probability theory tells us that the odds of rolling a "Lucky Six" are one in six.

Probability theory is one of the rare mathematical theories that doesn't really show anything. It is therefore widely used.

History of development

Probability theory was developed by Gerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal. In this research team, there was no cooperation at all, because they all lived at different times and were too lazy to invent the time machine. So the development of this theory lasted for centuries and is (probably) not yet finished. Cardano et al. were all committed into mental hospitals late in their lives. What are the odds against that? It is not clear whether they were actually mentally disoriented, or merely seemed to be, because of answering simple yes-and-no questions by speculating about "the chances."

The reason for this theory — as mathematicians do things only on purpose — is unknown to humanity. But some think that these scientists had had enough of answering the questions exactly and decided that with the theory of probability it would be a way easier. But when they were told that they were not doing their job properly, to complicate the situation more, these mathematicians developed some incomprehensible formulas to prove the opposite.

Convenient applications

The theory of probability should be used in several cases:

  • When you don't want to give a direct answer to a question
  • When you don't have an answer to a question but want to make people think that you do
  • When you want to complicate everything you have said and make everyone confused

People who very often use the theory of probability are called politicians.

Using theory of probability to solve problems or answer questions is brilliantly simple:

  • First, you should have a relevant question or a problem which should be answered using probability: questions of the "How are you?" type are irrelevant in this case; therefore, it is not understood by many people and so the answers like "100% OK" to such questions are rather common.
  • Then, you should foreshadow all possible outcomes.

For example, if the question is "With what probability will anything happen to us?", possible outcomes are:

  1. Maybe all the world particles will stop moving and nothing will happen at all in the Universe.
  2. Maybe the Universe exists in a giant computer and, because of a computer virus, everything will stop moving in our world so nothing willl happen.
  3. Maybe scientists have reached the absolute zero temperature in their lab, so the world will get frozen and nothing will happen.
  4. Maybe the chronology will get broken, the future won't exist anymore, so nothing will happen.
  5. Maybe something will happen.
  • After that, calculate the amount of outcomes which will cause positive effect and the amount of those that will cause a negative one. In our example, there are 4 outcomes that will cause nothing to happen (although this is grammatically incorrect) and 1 which will cause something.
  • Finally, calculate the percentage to answer the question. In our example, there is a 20% possibility that anything at all will happen in future.
  • Also, always remember that only scientists like precise numbers. Average people prefer them to be rounded up.

Conclusion: 20% is closer to 0% than to 100%. With the numbers rounded up we can say that nothing whatsoever will take place in our Universe. There is hardly a reason to finish this article, as there is a 0% chance that anyone will read it. Q.E.D.

Influence on history

Russian-roulette1
Probability theory tells you that you have an excellent five-in-six chance of surviving! Wanna try?

Few people realize the effects of probability theory on world history. Russian history is a perfect example:

  1. No one would argue that Russian roulette is based on probability theory. People deduced that, with only one bullet in the revolver, the odds are that they will survive after pulling the trigger. In contrast, the chances of surviving are negligible in Polish roulette, in which contestants start with six bullets.
  2. At the end of the nineteenth century, Russian stars, to amuse themselves, used probability theory to answer questions from "the Proletariat." This caused the misunderstanding between social classes (as at that time most Russians were not mathematicians), which was the direct cause of the revolution.

Russia is not the only country influenced by probability theory. No war would occur without the ability to compute the chance of winning.

Effects

The problem with probability theory is that, even if you know there is a 60% chance there won't be a math test today, it is not an effective argument when you aren't prepared for it. Some people don't understand this and so, as scientists have discovered, probability theory is the primary cause of the recent major increase in laziness.

Nevertheless, people unfamiliar with probability theory may commit giant mistakes. For example, the 20th Century's greatest advance in education, the multiple-choice test graded by optical reader, immediately increased the chances that a student who doesn't know the topic can get a good grade, from 0% to one-in-four.

Summary

Chances conclusion
The reader needs to decide if he really wants to understand probability theory. (Too late!)

The chances that the reader will complete this article are negligible: Not only is it a tiny drop of water in the huge septic tank that is Uncyclopedia, but the article's length is proportional to the reader's weariness on reaching the end. Which, if you have, against all odds, then you deserve congratulation, as the odds of you mastering this topic have diminished slightly.

See also

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